UFC 129 Main Card Betting Odds Picks in Toronto, Canada
Thursday, April 28, 2011
by BetUS.com
With the UFC returning to Canada for a mega-event in front of a record setting crowd, the BetUS Sportsbook has released betting odds on what should be a thrilling card. Georges St-Pierre defends his title against Jake Shields, while Randy Couture prepares for what might be his last fight. Which bouts are worth tying together in a big parlay? Take your picks from the list below!
- Georges St-Pierre -450 over Jake Shields +325
Try as they might, the UFC won’t convince the savvy fight fans out there that this title bout seriously endangers St-Pierre’s unreal reign as the welterweight kingpin. The promos billing Shields as a worthy, decorated contender who has been waiting for his chance in the spotlight have been brilliant, but that the production value of those spots shouldn’t inflate his actual value this weekend.
Shields doesn’t stand a chance in this fight. He’s a very strong fighter, but St-Pierre is just leagues ahead of everyone else in the welterweight division. He hasn’t really been tested by anyone, and Shields has never faced anyone of his caliber. St-Pierre has bested guys who know what to expect from him. He’ll catch Shields’ blindside easily.
Normally I don’t ever push fight TOTALS because of that whole puncher’s chance thing, but in this fight it’s almost a certainty that the main event will go the distance. If St-Pierre is anything, it’s a showman and he’ll want to give Toronto exactly what they want. The OVER in this fight is favored at -135 past 3.5 rounds (meaning it has to reach the fourth round), and I’d say that there’s an extremely strong chance of that happening.
After all, Shields has been touted as strongly as any contender to St-Pierre, and the champ has pushed a decision in 4 of his last 5 title defenses. The only person he’s absolutely decimated is B.J. Penn, and that’s because he had some bad blood to spill. Once Shields realize that he isn’t in St-Pierre’s league, he’ll start to back off in a big way and that’ll extend the life of this fight.
- Jose Aldo -500 over Mark Hominick +350
Follow the odds in this one, folks. Aldo is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, is 18-1 SU in his entire career and hasn’t lost a fight since 2005. Usually featherweights don’t boast the kind of power that Aldo does, but this guy is a destroyer. At 8-0 SU during a perfect WEC run, Aldo knocked out his opponents in seven of those fights.
Hominick might be pushed over the edge with the fact that he’s fighting in front of his home province, but the London, Ontario native will have to deal with Aldo thriving in his first UFC fight ever. Personally, I really like Hominick’s balance of submission and knockout ability, but stepping in the octagon with a guy like Aldo is going to be overwhelming for the Canadian. Aldo is unbeatable in my eyes.
- Randy Couture +250 over Lyoto Machida -350
Sure it’s an emotional pick, but who cares? This could be Couture’s final fight ever as he’s hinted at retirement. Ask me as a true fan and there’s no way that I’m going to bet against Couture in his last fight. I respect him too much.
If you need some convincing, than let’s point to the fact that Couture’s biggest advantage in this fight is that he’s a much better wrestler and he can hang everything in the octagon and pursue Machida like a bat out of hell with a lifetime of rest waiting for him at the end of the bout.
It’s become a painful process betting with Machida because his previously perceived “untouchable” style has been outted. I love Machida, and I want him to be a contender again, and while I’m not willing to throw him under the bus with just two losses on his professional record, I will say that this contrast of styles doesn’t bode well for him, especially when you toss in the extra fire that Couture will bring to the octagon if this truly is his last fight.
- Jason Brilz -110 over Vladimir Matyushenko -120
If you don’t recall Brilz, he’s the guy that rocked Antonio Rogererio Nogueira’s debut and lost a controversial split decision at UFC 114 last year. It’s probably easier to remember Matyushenko as one of the recent recipients of Jon Jones’ viscious elbow strikes. Like Nogueira, Matyshenko will likely underestimate the burly Brilz as a stepping stone and that would be a huge mistake. Even the oddsmakers are nervous about what Brilz is capable of which is why the fight line is so tight on this one.
Bet on UFC 129 with BetUS Sportsbook, click here!
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Tags
b.j. penn - georges st-pierre - jake shields - jason brilz - jose aldo - lyoto machida - mark hominick - randy couture - vladimir matyushenko
